The intention of today's talk is to help Americans understand how the Chinese view their history so that we can better understand how they view the current historical moment.
China has a history that goes back at least 4000 years and for almost all of this time -- excepting a brief interregnum between 1800 and 2000 CE -- Chinese civilization was among the most powerful and influential on the planet. The Chinese view the past 200 years as an aberration that is now being set right as they regain their "rightful" place as a global center of power.
After quickly reviewing the geography of China and explaining how it has influenced historical developments, the speaker proceeded to give a lightning-fast tour through 4000 years of Chinese dynasties; touching upon some highlights to illustrate interesting points that might inform current events. This included:
- The Shang/Zhou transition and the "Mandate of Heaven"
- The unifying nature of the ambitious, but short-lived, Qin dynasty
- The Han dynasty that rivaled Rome and established Confucianism as the state religion and set up the beginnings of the storied Chinese Civil Service system.
- The Romance of the Warring States period.
- The greatness of the Tang Dynasty, including the unusually powerful position that women had and the first - and only - woman Emperor: Wu Zetian who set up her own dynasty during this period.
- The short-lived Ming Dynasty.
- The great Qing Dynasty, including the depredations of the British Empire Drug cartel and the Opium Wars; the abysmal Tai Ping Tian Guo civil war in 1850-1862 (possibly 30,000,000 dead.)
- The Communist Dynasty established by Mao Zedong; the disaster of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.
- The opening up under Deng Xiaopeng
- The ascent of Xi Jinping and the current trajectory of China that harks back to Mao's vision of a unified and globally powerful China; and further back to the Qin dynasty and its view of how China should be ordered.
Chapnick concluded by stating his belief that given China's view of itself as a global power for almost its entire history, the Chinese will be unflaggingly assertive of their prerogatives as a world leader and will not back down from any conflict with the US. In particular, although not wanting to be suicidal, they will eventually reclaim -- by peaceful means, if at all possible, but other means if necessary -- Taiwan that consider an indissoluble part of China. He also believes that Xi Jinping takes the recapture of Taiwan as the final unresolved piece of his legacy and that the time pressure of age could push President Xi -- currently in his mid-70's -- into a much more aggressive posture as he ages.